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(Solution document) Suppose the probabilities have changed: Republican Democrat Independent Female 0.015 0.182 0.019 Male 0.049 0.


  1.   Suppose the probabilities have changed:


                   Republican     Democrat      Independent

Female        0.015              0.182             0.019

Male        0.049              0.094                ?

Compute the probability of event Democrat, and enter your answer with 3 decimal places



2. Assume breast cancer affects 0.005 of the female population 45 and 55 years of age. There are two kinds of positive test results:

  • True positive (The test indicated you have a disease, and you actually have it)
  • False positive (The test indicates you have a disease, but you actually don't)


Assume mammograms are

0.91 accurate detecting people who actually have breast cancer (true positive rate)

0.93 accurate for people who do not have breast cancer (true negative rate)


Compute the probability that a female between the ages of 45 and 55 who tests positive for breast cancer has breast cancer, and enter your answer with 3 decimal places.

 







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